Source link : https://london-news.net/russias-economic-outlook-navigating-tariff-wars-and-falling-oil-prices/
A surge in global tariffs initiated by the Trump administration has heightened concerns of an international recession and caused a downturn in energy markets.
When tariffs are extensive and elevated—such as the recent ones affecting the U.S. and its trade partners—they can compel businesses to limit production to a single country. This situation drives up manufacturing costs and adversely impacts factories, particularly in Asia, along with shipping companies.
If tensions in the trade war intensify, production of goods may decline, leading to higher prices and a global economic downturn, along with reduced energy demand.
Although Russia is not a major exporter to the U.S.—and is not among the nations targeted by Trump’s tariffs—it could still be impacted by declining oil prices and increased import costs.
Goldman Sachs predicts that if the U.S. avoids recession and reduces tariffs, Brent crude prices may average $62 by December 2025; however, if the economy contracts, prices could drop to $58, according to Reuters.
In its budget forecasts, the Russian government anticipates that the Urals oil price, a Russian blend sold at a discount to Brent, will average $69.70 per barrel in 2025.
In light of trade war anxieties, the Urals benchmark price has plummeted below $50 per barrel for the first time since June 2023, as reported by RBC, referencing estimates from Argus Media.
While oil prices have recovered with Trump temporarily halting some tariffs, uncertainty lingers…
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Publish date : 2025-04-15 17:58:00
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