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Opinion: To better prepare for a Trump or Harris presidency, Canada will need to develop a more crafty and durable approach to trade that pursues a stronger, more integrated continental economy
Published Nov 04, 2024 • Last updated 2 hours ago • 4 minute read
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To better prepare for a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency, Ottawa must realize that it needs to promote Canada’s indispensability to the U.S., writes Andrew Erskine. AP file photos Photo by Alex Brandon /THE ASSOCIATED PRESSArticle content
It’s a toss-up whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will become the next U.S. president. Both have shifted their focus to key battleground states, where polls indicate a back-and-forth race.
In preparation, Canada has reinvigorated its Team Canada strategy to work with a more populist and assertive Trump 2.0 administration. However, if Vice President Kamala Harris gets elected, Ottawa should not sigh a breath of relaxation on trade as the political enticement from the America First playbook in economic and technological areas will remain unabated — albeit with Harris it will be more transparent and less impulsive.
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Although a Harris presidency advocates a new “America Forward” approach to the country’s problems, Harris has vowed throughout her campaign to maintain and enhance many of the Biden administration’s protectionist policies on critical minerals, energy production, and innovation and industrial sectors. Even on immigration, Harris has become a more vocal proponent for tougher border security measures.
To better prepare for a Trump or Harris presidency, Ottawa must realize that it needs to promote Canada’s indispensability to the U.S. by being equally invested in prioritizing defence, trade, immigration, border security, and the geopolitical challenge of dealing with China’s rise as a peer-competitor.
On the big federal portfolios like defence, border security, immigration, and diplomacy, Canada should expedite the creation of a new national security strategy that will showcase Ottawa’s clarity, credibility, and resourcefulness to address these efforts.
On trade, potentially the most far-reaching political topic of the 2024 election, Canada will need to develop a more crafty and durable approach that pursues a stronger, more integrated continental economy.
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Here Ottawa will need to pitch how we are an indispensable partner to the U.S. in helping supply and build American civilian and military goods. For this to work, Canada will need to demonstrate its resolve to invest in strategies that leverage its wealth of natural resources, critical minerals, and advanced AI and quantum research capabilities.
However, with the broader uncertainty of whether the election results will yield a favourable or adverse outcome for bilateral trade relations, Canada must plan accordingly. For instance, if the election produces a united government under Republican control, Ottawa should expect unrestrained populist decisions on anything to do with trade. If the election produces a divided government, where either party controls the presidency and one or none of the two Houses of Congress — more likely to occur if Harris wins — Ottawa can expect polarizing and partisan gridlocks and ploys to undermine the economic priorities of either administration.
This is where the provinces can play their part. Aside from the constitutional responsibilities for provinces to control, manage, and develop their resources and public goods or in keeping with the tradition of federalism, Canada’s provinces can secure additional dialogue needed to influence bilateral economic integration and collaboration.
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Specifically, provincial governments and their political leadership can help align congressional senators or house representatives to Canadian partnerships by shifting focus away from federal politics to issues that transcends common concerns and interests on regional and local priorities. In effect, the provinces offer better insights into how Canadian goods contribute to mutual growth, productivity, and resilience in their electoral district — items congressional politicians need to keep in mind when they’re up for reelection every two years.
If the U.S. Congress remains unphased by this attempt, Ottawa should provide the provinces with ample resources to promote the importance of its trade corridors — which concentrate prominent industrial, energy, commercial, forestry, agricultural and fishing sectors to the U.S. markets along provincial lines — to American state governors, legislatures and municipal officials, illustrating Canada’s urgency to further collaborate with America on trade. For instance, political leaders in British Columbia should focus on the corridors exporting clean energy, forestry, critical minerals, and aerospace technologies as a way to position Canada as a logical partner for stabilizing key industries, supply chains and technological growth in key American states that Canada will need on its side to cement lasting trading relations.
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Many provinces already participate in subnational intergovernmental committees that address these cross-cutting issues on trade and investment opportunities. However, many lack the financial resources to establish more long-lasting connections in American states, which are crucial for making in-roads during polarization and partisan politics. By having Ottawa direct vital financial resources for the provinces to widen their diplomatic scope during these subnational groupings, provincial leaders can better advocate for why Canada is an indispensable partner for trade and investment, building resilient supply chains, and economic opportunity.
Canada has all the tools it needs to make itself indispensable in the North American relationship. What is required now is intergovernmental collaboration and unity to act upon that vision.
Andrew Erskine is a research fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, a researcher at the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers, and a 2025 Arctic Frontier Emerging Leader.
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