Well, this is new.
The Champions League returns today for the penultimate round of the league stage. This round of fixtures — the first ‘matchday seven’ in the tournament’s history — are the first European Cup matches to be played in January since 1968.
One of the aims of the new format was to generate more jeopardy and while there have been outliers (looking at you, Liverpool), there is plenty at stake for most other teams with two league matches left to play. To simplify things, The Athletic — using our Opta-powered projections — has divided the teams into four different tiers to help you decipher some of the key storylines as the initial phase reaches a crescendo.
GO DEEPER
Champions League projections 2024-25: Each team’s probability of qualifying for knockouts
Destination: Last 16
Liverpool are the sole team in this tier thanks to the only perfect record after six matches and just one goal conceded (joint best). They have avoided the jeopardy the tournament was expected to invite, brushing aside most of their opponents with ease. Arne Slot’s team have a probability in excess of 99 per cent of making the Round of 16 directly along with a 21 per cent chance of becoming champions of Europe for a seventh time.
Lille, who have beaten Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, will pose a stiff challenge, but will it be enough?
A win for Liverpool, combined with Barcelona dropping points at Benfica, will guarantee top spot. Barcelona are winless in their last three meetings with Benfica (two draws, one loss), all in the Champions League. Top spot for Arne Slot’s team means they will play in the last 16 against a team who finished 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the table. Currently, that would be one of Benfica, Monaco, Sporting or Feyenoord, although a lot will change in the next nine days.
Liverpool have the least to worry about in Matchday Seven (Josep Lago/AFP via Getty Images)Edging closer
Speaking of Hansi Flick’s side, Barcelona have won five in a row in the Champions League, are the top scorers (21 goals) and boast the best goal difference (+14), which is important as it determines the final standings if teams are level on points. They still have a 10 per cent chance of dropping out of the top eight due to tricky fixtures away to Benfica and a visit from Atalanta, who are just two points behind eighth place and have a 23 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight. A win here will drop those substantially while giving them a chance at top spot should Liverpool slip up.
Arsenal and Aston Villa — who played out an entertaining 2-2 draw in the Premier League on Saturday — fall in this tier too.
Villa could go third if they beat Monaco in the early kick-off, a tremendous achievement for a team in their first season in Europe’s premier competition in 41 years. Their chances of finishing outside the top 24 are down to less than one per cent, but they currently have an almost equal probability of finishing inside and outside the top eight, with Celtic visiting Villa Park on matchday eight.
Arsenal have had a bit of a wobble in recent weeks but have a 91 per cent chance of finishing in the Champions League’s top eight. They will be expected to put Dinamo Zagreb away on Wednesday ahead before travelling to Girona to end the league phase.
Arsenal and Villa have healthy GDs of +9 and +6, with a good chance of improving on that. Zagreb have conceded 15 times in six matches, while Monaco have let in 10.
Inter Milan have enjoyed a solid campaign despite being among the league’s lowest scorers with just seven goals. They will need to hit the back of the net while building on the joint-best defensive record (alongside Liverpool) against Sparta Prague and Monaco to try and avoid a decent league phase ending in a lower position due to their GD (+6).
Bayer Leverkusen are Europe’s in-form team and enter matchday seven on a 12-match winning streak. They meet Atletico Madrid, who just saw their 15-match winning run ended by Leganes in a 1-0 defeat over the weekend. Both teams have less than a one per cent chance of falling outside the knockout playoff spots, and victory here could boost their top-eight chances if those above slip up. A draw would help too as Leverkusen take on Sparta Prague and Atletico visit Red Bull Salzburg on matchday eight.
Xabi Alonso has got Leverkusen firing again (Pau Barrena/AFP via Getty Images)
Lille, Brest, Bayern Munich and AC Milan fall within this tier too. Bayern, on a five-match winning run, meet Feyenoord, who shocked Manchester City to draw 3-3 at the Etihad from 3-0 down but have conceded 15 times. Milan meet struggling Girona, who have won two of their last nine matches across all competitions. Bayern have a 65 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, while Milan are more likely to go through the playoffs (58 per cent). If Lille can grind out a result against Liverpool, they will be confident of beating Feyenoord on matchday eight, boosting their chances of finishing in the top eight.
Brest have been one of the stories of the season and look nailed-on to make the knockouts, with a 31 per cent chance of sneaking into the top eight to boot. A win at Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday will take them a step closer to ensuring the fairytale run continues. Also on the rise are Celtic, who have picked up six points from their last four Champions League outings, and who now boast a 95 per cent chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
Celtic are projected to have a 95 per cent chance of qualifying for the playoffs (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)Getting nervous
While they are ninth and just a point off third place, something is not right at Borussia Dortmund. They have won one of their last eight matches and have not kept a clean sheet since November 27 (3-0 vs Dinamo Zagreb), conceding three or more goals in four of their last six matches. To complicate matters further, their opponents Bologna have lost just one of their last 10 matches.
Dortmund’s chances of an early exit in the Champions League are at lower than one per cent, so they are not desperate for points, but more a lift in mood. Juventus need some momentum too. An unbeaten Serie A season so far has them in fifth place, 13 adrift of leaders Napoli. In the Champions League, they have lost just once but have just a 23 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight.
At the other end of the spectrum are Manchester City, who have rediscovered their form since the turn of the year but desperately need points. City are five points behind Lille in eighth but their chances of a top-eight finish stand at just nine per cent, according to our projections. Anything less than a win at Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday would require them to compete in a knockout playoff tie.
The system to determine the playoffs would mean City, currently 22nd, would face one of Atletico Madrid or Milan (11th and 12th). On a positive note, they boast the best GD among teams ranked between 15th and 24th at +4 with a game against Club Brugge in gameweek eight, which may well help ensure a higher seeding.
Manchester City will have to go the long way if they are to win the Champions League this season (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
PSG are arguably the most desperate within this tier as they currently sit outside the knockout playoff spots in 25th. The alarm bells are ringing at the Parc des Princes with their chances of dropping out in the league phase at 33 per cent and a tricky visit to Stuttgart to come after the City game.
Also in this tier are Real Madrid, who have blown hot and cold throughout the season. The reigning champions take on struggling Salzburg and will be expected to win, taking them up from their current spot in 20th which would pit them against Atalanta or Juventus in the playoffs.
Underestimate Madrid at your own peril, though. They are one of only two teams (City being the other) to have a higher probability of winning the tournament (seven per cent) than of finishing in the top eight (less than one per cent).
Monaco, Feyenoord, Zagreb, Benfica, Sporting CP, Stuttgart and PSV Eindhoven make up the rest of this tier. Sporting face Leipzig and Bologna in their final two games — a favourable draw given those two have won two of 36 available points so far.
PSV face Liverpool later this month and while Arne Slot may rest players based on how gameweek seven goes, the Dutch outfit surely need a win against struggling Crvena Zvezda on Tuesday. A game as exciting as their 5-4 win over Excelsior in the KNVB Cup last Tuesday would be welcome.
In dire straits
Three teams — Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava and RB Leipzig — have already been eliminated from the competition after losing all six games. Their aim will simply be to pick up at least a point from their remaining two games.
Right above them, Bologna, Salzburg, Girona and Sturm Graz are on the edge too, all with less than a one per cent chance of sneaking into the top 24. Crvena Zvezda have a three per cent chance as they play Young Boys in gameweek eight, but that will suffer if they do not beat PSV.
Sparta Prague and Shakhtar Donetsk could go level on points with the team in 24th place if they pick up four points from their final two games and other results go their way. But their GDs are -11 and -8 respectively, which makes their elimination even more likely.
(Header photos: Getty Images)
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Publish date : 2025-01-20 21:05:00
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The post Champions League projections: Analysing potential joy and jeopardy ahead of Matchday Seven first appeared on Love Europe.
Author : love-europe
Publish date : 2025-01-21 07:55:43
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