Home Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) heads to the Home flooring on Friday in hopes of being formally reelected Speaker.
Whereas Johnson has the endorsement of President-elect Trump to stay Speaker, one Republican is pledging to oppose him, and several other others usually are not committing to supporting Johnson. That has raised questions on whether or not he can win sufficient votes to maintain his gavel, given the Home GOP’s razor-thin majority.
In brief, Johnson can solely afford to lose one Republican vote for Speaker — assuming each member is current and voting for a candidate. However the particulars can get sophisticated.
The Speaker election is the primary order of enterprise for the Home on the opening day of the brand new Congress, which is on Jan. 3 at midday, as dictated by the Structure.
By apply, the Home can conduct no enterprise till it elects a Speaker, which means the chamber can be paralyzed till it does so. That situation was final seen firstly of the 118th Congress in January 2023, when it took former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) 15 ballots over 4 days to clinch the gavel.
Here is how the maths breaks down:
The Speaker is elected by a majority — not a plurality — of Home members voting for a candidate by identify.
On the primary day of the brand new Congress on Friday, there are anticipated to be 219 Republicans, 215 Democrats, and one emptiness on condition that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) says he won’t return to take his seat, placing the full variety of members at 434.
Since a majority of 434 is 218, which means Johnson wants 218 votes in an effort to win the Speakership, assuming each member is current and voting for a candidate.
Democrats sign they may all vote for Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). In Speaker battles final yr, Democrats by no means noticed any defections.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) says he’ll vote for somebody apart from Johnson, angered by his dealing with of spending points, Ukraine help and different issues. If each different Republican votes for Johnson, he can nonetheless win the Speakership. In that situation, the full could be 218 Johnson, 215 Jeffries and one vote for an additional candidate, nonetheless delivering Johnson a majority of the votes.
But when one different Republican joins Massie in voting for somebody apart from Johnson, he doesn’t get the gavel. In that situation — 217 Johnson, 215 Jeffries, two different — nobody could be elected Speaker since nobody would have a majority of votes, and the Home would vote once more.
The mathematics will get extra sophisticated if a member is absent or votes “present,” because the Speaker must be elected by solely a majority of these voting for a candidate.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), a Republican who has additionally not dedicated to supporting Johnson regardless of Trump’s endorsement, voted “present” throughout a number of Speaker rounds earlier than McCarthy was elected.
In a situation the place Massie votes for an additional candidate and Spartz votes “present,” Johnson can nonetheless win. The breakdown could be 217 Johnson, 215 Jeffries, one vote for an additional candidate and one current, handing Johnson the gavel as a result of he received a majority of the 433 votes for Speaker.
However a situation the place Massie votes for a candidate apart from Johnson and two members vote “present” may tank Johnson on that Speakership vote. If the vote is 216 Johnson, 215 Jeffries, one vote for an additional candidate and two current, Johnson loses as a result of 216 will not be a majority of the 432 votes forged for Speaker.
Any absences on both the Republican or Democratic facet may additionally change the variety of GOP defections Johnson can afford, reducing the edge wanted to win.
Author : LasVegasNews
Publish date : 2024-12-30 20:14:02
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.