Florida could be in the crosshairs of future Tropical Storm Sara
The system expected to become Tropical Storm Sara will bring extreme rainfall to Central America, but it could also be a danger to Florida.
Parts of Central America are getting slammed with catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides that could lead to loss of lives and property as a slow-moving Tropical Storm Sara bears down on Honduras and Belize, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to bring 15 to 25 inches of rain, with nearly three feet of rain possible in isolated areas.
And parts of Florida may get a sampling next week.
Sara, the 18th named storm of the season, currently has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph but is predicted to weaken, lose circulation and possibly dissipate by Monday.
AccuWeather forecasters said some remnants may join up with a front over the Gulf of Mexico and could threaten the west coast of Florida with coastal flooding and thunderstorms. Conditions could allow Sara to strengthen back into a tropical storm, but the relatively cooler waters of the Gulf won’t be enough to allow the rapid intensification seen with Helene and Milton.
“The most significant threat in Florida will be heavy rainfall that can swamp streets, highways and low-lying areas,” AccuWeather experts said. “How significant the rain and flooding are will depend on the intensity and forward speed of Sara.”
Meanwhile, the storm threatens to dump feet of rain for days on the northern parts of Nicaragua and Honduras before shifting to eastern parts of Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico with the biggest downpour hitting northern Honduras and Nicaragua.
“This amount of rain will trigger major flash flooding and mudslides with the potential for catastrophic loss of life and tremendous damage,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned.
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Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 9 a.m. EST Friday, Nov. 15:
Tropical Storm Sara: What you should know
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 16.1N 86.0W, about 30 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 175 miles east-southeast of Belize CityMaximum sustained winds: 50 mphPresent movement: West at 5 mphMinimum central pressure: 997 MBHow strong is Tropical Storm Sara and where is it going?
At 9 a.m. EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 5 mph. A continued slow westward motion is expected over the next day or so, but a west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before approaching Belize, and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara
Watches, warnings issued
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Tropical storm warning:
The Northern coast of HondurasThe Bay Islands of HondurasThe Caribbean Sea coast of GuatemalaThe coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border.Will Tropical Storm Sara be the next hurricane to hit Florida?
Sara is expected to dissipate or drastically weaken as it passes over Central America. The storm could potentially strengthen again after it enters the Gulf of Mexico but relatively cooler water and wind shear will likely prevent it from intensifying, forecasters said.
Areas on the west coast of Florida may see thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding by the middle of next week.
Key messages from the National Hurricane CenterThrough early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras.Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala and Belize where tropical storm warnings are in effect.Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Sara get?As of 10 a.m. EST: 50 mph12 hours: 50 mph24 hours: 60 mph36 hours: 60 mph48 hours: 60 mph, inland60 hours: 35 mph, inland72 hours: 30 mph, post-tropical remnant96 hours: DissipatedWhat impact could Tropical Storm Sara have?
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and Guatemala. ear the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize.
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. However, tropical storms can develop at any time.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your cityExcessive rainfall forecastStay informed. Get weather alerts via textWhat do the watches and warning mean?
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
What’s next?
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(This story was updated with new information.)
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